Antony J. Blinken touched down in Beijing on Sunday morning, becoming the first U.S. secretary of state to visit China since 2018. The trip had been delayed for months due to strained relations between the two nations. Initially scheduled for February, Blinken postponed the visit after a Chinese surveillance balloon drifted across the continental United States, as announced by the Pentagon.
The hope from Blinken and other American officials is that this visit will mark the beginning of a more constructive era of diplomacy. However, China has maintained a confrontational stance in recent weeks, raising concerns that the meetings in Beijing might lean towards antagonism rather than amicability.
Both sides approach the meetings with a list of grievances and issues to discuss, making these two days of crucial importance in assessing the possibility of reconciliation between China and the United States.
What are the key issues on Blinken’s agenda?
American officials have emphasized that re-establishing high-level diplomacy is their top priority. They believe it is essential for the two countries to establish channels of communication to de-escalate existing tensions that could potentially escalate during a crisis, such as a collision between naval ships or aircraft in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.
Security matters are likely to take center stage. American officials have grown increasingly concerned about close encounters with the Chinese military in the seas surrounding China. The United States is also closely monitoring China’s efforts to establish military bases across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Furthermore, the U.S. has issued warnings to China, urging them not to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its involvement in the war in Ukraine.
Blinken intends to engage Chinese officials in discussions on global issues where the two nations might share common interests, including climate change and economic stability worldwide, as stated by Daniel J. Kritenbrink, the top East Asia official in the State Department.
Blinken is also likely to request the release of detained or imprisoned American citizens in China and advocate for the revival of people-to-people exchanges. This may involve expanding the limited number of journalist visas that both countries had agreed upon at the beginning of the Biden administration, before relations deteriorated.
U.S. officials also expect to address China’s export limitations on substances used in the production of fentanyl, a drug that has caused a deadly addiction crisis in the United States and other nations.
What can we expect from China?
China is expected to raise a multitude of grievances that reflect Beijing’s perception of the United States as a declining hegemonic power determined to contain China economically, militarily, and diplomatically.
At the top of China’s agenda is Taiwan, an island that Beijing claims as its own territory but is de facto independent and receives military support from the United States.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has designated Taiwan as “at the very core of China’s core interests” and has accused the United States of supporting “pro-independence” forces and meddling in China’s internal affairs.
China is also likely to express deep frustration regarding U.S.-led efforts to restrict Chinese access to advanced semiconductor chips and manufacturing equipment. The United States justifies these restrictions as necessary to prevent American technology from falling into the hands of the People’s Liberation Army, but China sees them as obstacles that could impede its technological development for years. China perceives such restrictions as a manifestation of “zero-sum competition” that is driving the two countries towards confrontation.
Despite China’s rapid military buildup, Beijing is expected to accuse Washington of attempting to provoke conflict by strengthening security ties with regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, and India.
China’s ultimate desire is for the United States to treat it as an equal global power, granting it an equal say on the world stage and removing any sense of threat from the U.S. military presence in Asia.
Will Xi Jinping personally meet with Blinken?
One significant question surrounding the trip is whether Blinken will have a meeting with President Xi Jinping. American and Chinese officials were still finalizing the details of Blinken’s schedule during the past week, and confirmation of a meeting might not be available until the last minute. The possibility of a meeting will depend largely on the outcomes of the meetings on Sunday and early Monday.
However, Blinken and Xi have interacted before. They have had several encounters, including in 2011 when Blinken, then the national security adviser for Vice President Joe Biden, visited China to establish a rapport with Xi Jinping, who was his counterpart at the time.
The recent diplomatic engagements between Chinese officials and foreign leaders, including Xi’s reception of various foreign dignitaries in China this year, could also potentially favor the likelihood of a meeting between Blinken and Xi Jinping.
